The Ladbroke's odds quoted by the man from Wolf Hall translate to probabilities of winning the seat as follows
UKIP 65%
Tory 22%
Labour 10%
Publican 1%
Lib Dem 1%
The most recent poll of 1000 respondents funded by ex-bookie & Farage supporter Al Bown and published in the Express (where else!) gave voting intentions as follows
UKIP 39%
Tory 27%
Labour 27%
Publican 1%
Lib Dem 1%
Greens 3%
Given the maths involved in going from a vote percentage to a winner I won't try and reproduce the calculations here but take my word for it these results are in agreement.
The opinion poll shows the only danger to Farage would be tactical voting by Tories voting Labour or vice versa. Both groups are so tribal in their loyalties either scenario is very unlikely so Farage will be safe.
Greens don't appear in the Ladbroke odds derived figures as the bookies think their chance of winning is zilch
Lord Ashcroft: Labour’s lead up to four points in my latest poll
Last updated: February 23, 2015 at 2:44 pm
Labour’s lead is up from one to four points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party’s 36 per cent share is the highest recorded in the ANP since July, while the UKIP share of 11 per cent is the lowest I have yet found in my national polling. The Conservatives are up two points on 32 per cent, the Liberal Democrats down two at 7 per cent, and the Greens and the SNP unchanged at 8 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.
Despite prompting for UKIP in the main voting intention question at the beginning of 2015, I have generally found lower scores for the party this year than last – indeed UKIP’s share in published polls more generally has drifted down since its height last autumn. My qualitative research suggests two possible reasons for this. Most importantly, undecided voters increasingly (and spontaneously) say they know where UKIP stand on immigration and Europe but at a general election they want to vote for someone with more to offer. Some also wonder whether unpleasant or even sinister elements lurk behind the reasonable and entertaining Mr Farage, a suspicion that may have been reinforced over the last few days. We will see as further polls are published whether this effect persists in the coming days and weeks.
Like Ashcroft I opine the Thanet loony effect I wote of earlier is starting to bite.